The November 2023 Federal Reserve Meeting & Mortgage Rates

The Federal Reserve voted “no change” on the Fed Funds Rate at its November 2023 FOMC Meeting by unanimous vote. The pause held the group’s benchmark interest rate in a target range near 5.25 percent.

Since the announcement, mortgage rates are lower. 

Mortgage rates dropping after a Fed “no change” announcement is a terrific reminder to first-time home buyers: the Federal Reserve doesn’t set mortgage rates.

Here’s what to know.

What Is The Federal Reserve?

The Federal Reserve is the government’s central bank and monetary policy agency. It was established by charter in the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.

“The Fed” is an independent group. It acts without outside congressional or White House influence. 

The Fed’s primary role is to maintain the stability and security of the U.S. financial system, which it fulfills with the following duties:

1. Supervision and regulation of U.S. banks
2. Management of the nation’s money supply
3. Acting as lender of last resort during financial crises

The group is remembered for three notable economic interventions: 

• Early-1930s: Along with the FHA, the Fed helped the country emerge from The Great Depression
• Early-1980s: The Fed tempered runaway inflation by raising interest rates sharply and decisively
• 2008-2012: The Fed lowered interest rates to prevent a financial system collapse 

It also helped stabilize the economy during the COVID-19 crisis, beginning in February 2020.

The Fed’s charter gives it several tools for affecting economic growth. The group’s primary, and most well-known tool, is the Fed Funds Rate.

The Fed Funds Rate is a prescribed interest rate for overnight loans between two banks. 

It is also the starting point for other common interest rates, including Prime Rate, which is the basis for most business and consumer loans, including credit card balances and home equity lines of credit.

Prime Rate is always three percentage points above the Fed Funds Rate, so, effective November 1, 2023, Prime Rate stays at 8.25 percent.

How The Fed Funds Rate Works

The Fed Funds Rate is an interest rate assigned by the Federal Reserve. It’s applied to loans that banks make with one another, usually to fulfill overnight cash reserve requirements.

When the Federal Reserve raises and lowers the Fed Funds Rate, it speeds up and slows down the pace of economic growth, respectively.

When the Fed Funds Rate is low, interest costs on loans between banks are low, which makes it cheaper for banks to borrow money. Banks pay less interest when the Fed Funds Rate drops, so they have more money available for business and consumer loans into the community

Loans into the community are linked to additional spending, jobs, and economic growth. Lowering the Fed Funds Rate is expansionary.

A low Fed Funds Rate raises inflationary pressures.

When the Fed Funds Rate is high, the reverse is true. Borrowing money gets more expensive for banks, which leads to fewer loans made to businesses and consumers, which, in turn, slows economic growth.

A higher Fed Funds Rate is contractionary. It reduces inflationary pressures.

The Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds Rate 11 times since March 2022. In its last two meetings – September 2023 and November 2023 – it votes to stay on pause.

When Does The Fed Funds Rate Change?

The Federal Reserve has a 12-person committee called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). 

The FOMC meets at least eight times annually to discuss and update monetary policy. 

At each meeting, to fulfill its charter and regulate economic growth, the FOMC votes on whether to raise, lower, or leave the Fed Funds Rate as-is. The FOMC will also meet on an as-needed emergency basis, as it did on the following dates:

• October 8, 2008 (Banking Crisis): Reduced the Fed Funds Rate by 50 basis points
• March 3, 2022 (COVID): Reduced the Fed Funds Rate by 50 basis points
• March 15, 2022 (COVID): Reduced the Fed Funds Rate by 100 basis points

The Federal Reserve has made 69 Fed Funds Rate changes since January 1, 2000.

When is the next FOMC meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting schedule is listed on the Federal Reserve website. The group meets for two days, roughly six weeks apart, in the agency’s Washington, D.C. headquarters. 

There are eight scheduled meetings per year.

The remaining 2023 FOMC meeting schedule and upcoming 2024 FOMC calendar is:

• December 12-13, 2023
• January 30-31, 2024
• March 19-20, 2024
• Apr/May 30-1, 2024
• June 11-12, 2024
• July 30-31, 2024
• September 17-18, 2024
• November 6-7, 2024
• December 17-18, 2024

The 2025 FOMC meeting schedule is not yet published, but a tentative meeting date is set for January 28-29, 2025.

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The Federal Reserve and U.S. Mortgage Rates

The Federal Reserve makes the Fed Funds Rate. It doesn’t make other interest rates, including mortgage rates for first-time home buyers or other interest rates lenders charge.

For example, if you were buying your first home and looking for today’s mortgage rates, you wouldn’t look to the Fed – you would look to a mortgage company. 

One could argue the Federal Reserve doesn’t care what mortgage rates are. Mortgage lending isn’t part of the Fed’s charter, and making affordable mortgages for first-time home buyers isn’t on its to-do list.

The Fed Funds Rate and 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates are disassociated. If the rates were related, the chart above would mimic the  30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate path.

It doesn’t.

However, mortgage rates react to inflation, so the Federal Reserve and mortgage rates aren’t entirely disconnected.

Inflation Vs. Mortgage Rates

Inflation is the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. 

As consumers, we experience inflation as rising prices; we buy things and need more dollars to purchase the same goods or services. 

Wall Street experiences inflation differently. Inflation devalues investments, and inflation is among the most potent forces on U.S. mortgage rates.

The inflation/mortgage rate relationship is direct:

• When inflation rates at rising, mortgage rates usually rise
• When inflation rates are falling, mortgage rates usually fall

Inflation is the enemy of low mortgage rates, and, in this way, the Federal Reserve influences how mortgage rates move.

When the Federal Reserve signals that inflationary pressures are rising, mortgage rates tend to increase in response. Home buyers experienced this in late-2022 and early-2023, with mortgage rates climbing past 7 percent.

Then, in mid-2023, mortgage rates lowered when inflation showed signs of slowing.

The Federal Reserve signals its future policy moves. First-time buyers can get a lower mortgage rate by listening to what the Fed says instead of waiting for what the Fed does. 

The Fed controls inflation, and inflation controls mortgage rates.