Mortgage Rate Winning and Losing Streaks: 54 Years of History

Mortgage Rate Winning and Losing Streaks: 54 Years of Data

This Homebuyer.com research study provides a comprehensive analysis of sustained mortgage rate movements, examining the longest consecutive weekly winning and losing streaks for 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage interest rates.

This analysis uses data from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) to examine multi-week winning and losing streaks since the modern mortgage rate era began in 1971.

All Mortgage Rate Winning Streaks (2+ Weeks)

Mortgage rates fall for multiple weeks more often than you might think. Short winning streaks happen all the time — we found 125 two-week drops since 1971. But the longer the streak, the rarer it gets. Nine-week winning streaks like 2025's only happen about once every 7-8 years.

All Mortgage Rate Losing Streaks (2+ Weeks)

Losing streaks (when rates rise week after week) demonstrate greater persistence than winning streaks, with longer durations being more common during inflationary periods and Federal Reserve tightening cycles.

Weekly Mortgage Rate Changes Since 1971

Most weeks see small changes, but dramatic moves do happen -- especially during period of economic volatility. For example, the biggest gainer and loser weeks both happen during the hyper-inflation period of 1980:

• Biggest single-week increase: +1.40% on March 14, 1980 (14.00% → 15.40%)
• Biggest single-week decrease: -1.22% on May 9, 1980 (15.90% → 14.68%)

The chart below shows how often weekly mortgage rates stay the same, move a little, or make a big jump.

How Much Do Mortgage Rates Change Each Week?

Mortgage Rates By Year

Each year tells a story. The table below shows how mortgage rates started and ended each year since 1971, along with the average weekly change and the major economic event that shaped that year's rate environment.

Some years saw dramatic swings — like 1980 when rates spiked from 16.35% to over 18% during the Volcker Fed's inflation fight. Other years were remarkably stable, with rates barely budging week to week. The "Notable Event" column shows what was driving rates that year, from oil crises to housing booms to financial meltdowns.

Compare lenders now for today's mortgage rates.

How Mortgage Rates Behave When The FOMC Meets

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times per year to set interest rate policy. We analyzed mortgage rate movements during all 608 FOMC meeting weeks since 1971 to see if Federal Reserve meetings actually cause more rate volatility.

The answer: Fed meetings do increase mortgage rate volatility, but only slightly.

The Numbers: FOMC Weeks vs. Regular Weeks

During the 590 weeks that contained FOMC meetings, mortgage rates moved an average of 0.073 percentage points. During the 2,252 regular weeks, rates moved 0.070 percentage points on average.

That's just a 4% difference.

Here's how the two types of weeks compare:

What This Means

Federal Open Market Committee meetings create slightly more volatility in two ways.

First, they produce more extreme moves in mortgage rates. Big changes of 25 basis points or more happen during 5.3% of FOMC weeks compared to just 2.9% of regular weeks. Second, they create more uncertainty, leading to a higher standard deviation in rate changes.

However, FOMC weeks also have more periods of complete stability.

Nearly 19% of FOMC weeks see no rate change at all, compared to 15% of regular weeks. This suggests that when the Fed delivers expected news, markets barely react.

The Biggest Move Happen Outside FOMC Weeks

Surprisingly, the largest single-week mortgage rate moves in history didn't coincide with Fed meetings:

• Biggest weekly increase: +1.40% on March 14, 1980 (non-FOMC week)
• Biggest weekly decrease: -1.22% on May 9, 1980 (FOMC week)

Both happened during the volatile 1980 period, but the larger move occurred when markets reacted to inflation data rather than Fed policy.

The Federal Reserve Effect On Mortgage Rates Is Smaller Than Expected

Given the Federal Reserve's role in setting monetary policy, many people expect FOMC meetings to dramatically shake up the mortgage market. But, our analysis shows that the Fed's impact on rates is relatively small.

Here's why.

First, markets usually know what's coming. Investors and analysts spend weeks predicting Fed decisions, so by the Fed's actual meeting day, much of the outcome is already reflected in current rates. Second, mortgage rates follow 10-year Treasury bonds more closely than the short-term federal funds rate that the Fed directly controls.

Third, other economic forces tend to affect rates more than the Fed meetings themselves.

Economic data releases like jobs reports or inflation numbers are usually responsible for the largest swings in mortgage rates -- way more than the FOMC and its announcements. 1980 proves this point: the largest recorded spike in mortgage rates happened when markets panicked about inflation data, not when the Fed met.

These factors help explain our findings. Fed meetings do increase mortgage rate volatility, but the effect is modest -- just 0.3 basis points in the week.

For home buyers and refinancing households, this means timing your purchase or refinance around Fed meetings probably won't save you much money. Watching broader economic trends and market sentiment may be more valuable than obsessing over the Fed calendar.

Record-Breaking Mortgage Rate Moments

Beyond the sustained streaks, U.S. mortgage rates are full of dramatic single moments and periods of extreme movement. Here are the most remarkable rate events from 54 years of data.

The Highest and Lowest Points

Since 1971, mortgage rates have covered an incredible range of 16 percentage points.

The highest rate on record was 18.63% on October 9, 1981 during Fed Chairman Paul Volcker's aggressive inflation fight. At that rate, a $200,000 mortgage would have cost $3,100 per month in principal and interest alone.

Use our mortgage calculator to see what a $200,000 mortgage would cost today.

The lowest point for mortgage rates happened 40 years later during the pandemic, when emergency Fed policies and massive bond purchases drove rates to unprecedented lows at 2.65% on January 7, 2021.

The Most Dramatic Weekly Moves

While most weeks only bring small changes to mortgage rates, some weeks brought shocking shifts that caught the mortgage industry and home buyers completely off guard.

The biggest weekly jump happened during the week of March 14, 1980, when mortgage rates went from 14.00% → 15.40% in 7 days. The surge reflected a Wall Street panic over runaway inflation.

Then, just two months later, during the week of May 9, 1980, fears of a recession fell and mortgage rates took their biggest weekly drop of all-time, falling from 15.90% to 14.68%.

Both extremes occurred during the most volatile periods in mortgage rate history.

The Most Volatile and Stable Years

Some years have introduced wild swings in mortgage rates, while others have been calm.

The most volatile year was 1980, which saw rates swing 4.17 percentage points during the second oil crisis and Volcker's inflation battle.

In contrast, 1972 was the most stable year with only 0.23 percentage points of movement during a period of steady economic growth with stable monetary policy.

2022 ranks as the third most volatile year ever, which reflect the Fed's rapid pivot from pandemic support to inflation fighting.

How Rare Are Big Moves?

Despite the dramatic examples above, mortgage rates are actually quite stable most of the time.

• In 10% of weeks, rates didn't move.
• In 46% of weeks, rates moved less than 5 basis points.
• Rates have moved more than 50 basis points just 0.4% of the time.

Big moves may grab headlines, but small moves are the norm.

Research Methodology

How To Use & Share Our Research

Homebuyer.com conducted this comprehensive analysis of mortgage rate winning streaks to provide historical context for current market conditions and help homebuyers understand rate movement patterns.

Press and Media Usage

Journalists, researchers, and content creators may reference our findings with proper attribution. We welcome coverage that helps homebuyers make informed decisions about timing and market conditions.

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• Include a link to this complete study: Mortgage Rate Winning Streaks
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Embed Our Research

Use this embed code to include our streak summary in your article:

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  <p style="margin:0 0 8px 0;font-size:16px;color:#111827;">
    Mortgage Rate Winning and Losing Streaks: 54 Years of Data — via Homebuyer.com Research
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  <ul style="margin:0;padding-left:18px;font-size:14px;">
    <li><strong>Longest winning streak:</strong> 31 weeks (1982-1983), rates fell 387 bp</li>
    <li><strong>Longest losing streak:</strong> 35 weeks (1973), rates rose 142 bp</li>
    <li><strong>2025 winning streak:</strong> 9 weeks (6.75% → 6.26%, −49 bp)</li>
    <li><strong>Most volatile year:</strong> 1980 (16.35% → 12.18%, −417 bp in 13 weeks)</li>
    <li>
      <strong>Short streaks common:</strong> 572 two-week declines, 575 two-week increases since
      1971
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  <p style="margin:10px 0 0 0;font-size:12px;color:#6b7280;">
    Source: Homebuyer.com analysis of Freddie Mac PMMS data.
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