Mortgage Market Statistics: Rates, Loan Types & Lender Rankings (2025)
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2024 Mortgage Rates: A 4.25% Forecast
This 2024 mortgage rates forecast compiles data from 4,000 days of mortgage rates, highlighting trends and making predictions for first-time home buyers. Share our findings with your friends, colleagues, and buyer's agent.
The projections in this post are the opinion of the author and do not reflect the opinions of Homebuyer.com, which is not a mortgage lender.
Key Findings from the 2024 Mortgage Rate Forecast
Our analysis reveals several important trends for home buyers:
- Mortgage rates are expected to decrease in 2024
- First-time home buyers may see rates near 4.25% by summer
- Inflation pressures are expected to ease significantly
- Congressional action could provide additional assistance to buyers
Mortgage Rate Roller Coaster: A Visual Journey
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Historical Mortgage Rate Data
This mortgage rate path shows conventional, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates from January 2012 through mid-December 2023:
FRED Data: MORTGAGE30US
Homebuyer.com uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Freddie Mac, FRED Data: MORTGAGE30US [MORTGAGE30US], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; , December 4, 2025.
Source: Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States [MORTGAGE30US], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The 2023 Mortgage Rate Journey
Early 2023: Mortgage Rates Double
In January 2023, mortgage rates were near 6.5%, double the rate from a year earlier. Existing home supply dropped to 2.9 months, the lowest in recorded history, while home values posted a 10.2% annual gain nationwide.
Many home buyers chose to sit out of the market. However, those who bought in January 2023 likely feel good about that decision today.
The Federal Reserve's Response
In early February 2023, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points — the eighth straight rate hike but the smallest increase in a year. Wall Street interpreted this as a sign that inflation was coming under control, causing mortgage rates to drop.
Spring and Summer Volatility
The mortgage market experienced significant volatility throughout 2023:
- March: Strong economic data raised doubts about inflation easing
- April: Recession fears took hold, causing rates to drop
- May: Government shutdown threats pushed rates above 6.75%
- July: Fed raised rates to 5.25%, marking the end of rate hikes
The Historic November Decline
November 1, 2023, kicked off a historic decline in mortgage rates. Over seven weeks, 30-year mortgage rates dropped from a 23-year high to more manageable levels for home buyers.
2024 Mortgage Rate Predictions
Expected Rate Decline
Mortgage rates are expected to decrease in 2024, with first-time home buyers potentially seeing rates near 4.25% by summer. Here's why:
Inflation Pressures Easing
Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, is down two-thirds from its mid-2022 peak. The Fed has successfully weakened demand through 11 consecutive rate hikes.
Mortgage Bond Market Recovery
Mortgage rates started 2024 on an 8-week win streak, the longest in 13 years. During this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate fell by more than 150 basis points, giving home buyers 16% more purchasing power.
Congressional Support
Congress is considering several bills that would make homeownership more accessible:
- HELPER Act: 100% mortgages for teachers and first responders
- Downpayment Toward Equity Act: $20,000 cash grants or more for first-time buyers
- DASH Act: Automatic $15,000 first-time home buyer tax credit
- LIFT Act: Ultra-low mortgage rates for first-time buyers
Potential Risk Factors
Mortgage rate forecasts can guide decisions, but they cannot predict unexpected "market shock" events. Historical examples include:
| Year | Market Shock Event |
|---|---|
| 2000 | The Dotcom Bubble Burst |
| 2001 | 9/11 Terrorist Attacks |
| 2008 | The Global Financial Crisis |
| 2020 | COVID-19 Pandemic |
| 2022 | Runaway Inflation |
| 2023 | Inflation Persists |
Historical Mortgage Rate Data
Weekly Mortgage Rates by Year
| Month | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 3.72% | 2.65% | 3.22% | 6.48% |
| February | 3.45% | 2.73% | 3.55% | 6.09% |
| March | 3.29% | 3.02% | 3.76% | 6.65% |
| April | 3.33% | 3.18% | 4.72% | 6.28% |
| May | 3.26% | 2.96% | 5.27% | 6.39% |
| June | 3.18% | 2.99% | 5.09% | 6.79% |
| July | 3.07% | 2.98% | 5.30% | 6.81% |
| August | 2.88% | 2.77% | 4.99% | 6.90% |
| September | 2.93% | 2.87% | 5.66% | 7.12% |
| October | 2.88% | 2.99% | 6.66% | 7.49% |
| November | 2.78% | 3.09% | 6.95% | 7.63% |
| December | 2.71% | 3.11% | 6.49% | 6.75% |
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
Research Methodology
Our mortgage study data was gathered from multiple authoritative sources:
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
- Federal Reserve website
- FFEIC Snapshot National Loan Level Dataset
- First-party Homebuyer.com data
Data Analysis Process
The FFEIC Snapshot files contain national Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) datasets, modified to protect applicant and borrower privacy.
Our study required advanced mathematical calculations to derive complex mortgage statistics. We used Google BigQuery and custom Python scripting to ensure accuracy and precision.
Study Limitations
This study tracks the 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage and excludes the use of discount points in our mortgage rate forecast and tracking.
Conclusion
The 2024 mortgage rate forecast suggests a more favorable environment for home buyers, with rates potentially dropping to 4.25% by summer. However, buyers should remain aware of potential market shocks and consider the various assistance programs that may become available through Congressional action.
For more detailed analysis, see our companion report on Generational Home Buyer Statistics.
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About the Author
Dan Green
20-year Mortgage Expert
Dan Green is a mortgage expert with over 20 years of direct mortgage experience. He has helped millions of homebuyers navigate their mortgages and is regularly cited by the press for his mortgage insights. Dan combines deep industry knowledge with clear, practical guidance to help buyers make informed decisions about their home financing.
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